Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Oculus Rift and Facebook

Facebook acquired Oculus Rift for some two billion dollars in cash and stock.  While I've never been a fan or proponent of virtual reality or the Oculus Rift, I can understand why some backers are upset.

Facebook isn't a games industry company.  Games run on their platform, but the games only serve as a way to draw people into their system.  Facebook churns through users and depends on a massive number of them in order to sell advertising.

The problem is that virtual reality probably won't be used by hundreds of millions of people.  It will be a niche product like stereoscopic 3D games and movies, although it could be a very large niche with millions of users.  A company like Valve can support a small to large niche, but Facebook demands higher returns for its investments.  It's unlikely Facebook will derive significant consumer revenue from Oculus Rift without gaming.  That leaves business and government purchases, but there's a problem there as well.

It doesn't quite make sense that Facebook bought Oculus Rift to compete with Google Glass.  Google Glass provides a heads-up display to deliver environmental information to users.  The business application is readily apparent:  a delivery man equipped with Google Glass can track a package, drive an optimal route, and receive updates from headquarters in real time (individual technologies already exist for this, but Google Glass can combine all these functions into one portable unit).  Oculus Rift only allows the wearer to explore a virtual environment.  It might be useful for training medical or military personnel, but its applications are inherently limited.  Gaming is one of the larger potential roles for the Oculus Rift, but since Facebook isn't primarily interested in it, the Rift's backers may be left out in the cold.

Of all the possible suitors for Oculus Rift, Facebook may prove the worst.  Companies like Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony have all shown a willingness to support new technologies for a length of time.  Facebook is too young and their recent spendthrift buying spree suggests little if any long-term planning or strategy.  The second Facebook runs into serious financial difficulty, they'll jettison Oculus Rift as dead weight.  Facebook will either sell it or, possibly to forestall competitors, simply shut it down and cease all production.  Oculus Rift fans and backers are right to be worried.  A more traditional gaming company could guarantee a certain level of support.  Backers could trust that it wouldn't be dropped on a whim.  Facebook can't buy that.

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